Something is going on in the Houstin area that is making local and national Democrats take notice. Michael Skelly, Democratic candidate for the 7th Congressional District is seeking the seat once held by George H.W. Bush, according to the
Politico.
Democrats have been increasingly bullish about their ability to win over suburban, ancestrally Republican House districts that have been trending in their party’s direction over the past decade.
But their party’s latest target shows just how confident Democrats have become. Democrats are eyeing one of the most reliably Republican seats in the heart of Texas — Rep. John Culberson’s suburban Houston district, once held by President Bush’s father — and have a candidate who is causing a stir due to his prolific fundraising.
Businessman Michael Skelly is positioned to be at the top of the Democratic fundraising list for the year’s first quarter, according to a Democratic operative, raising about $750,000 from individual donors without even tapping into his substantial personal wealth. Another Democratic operative said it could be the “best first quarter ever” for any House Democrat in his first filing period.
Currently, the seat is rated “Safe Republican” by Congressional Quarterly, but we have a candidate who is taking the race seriously, and perhaps so should we.
If you use the information from their mid-quarter FEC reports…
Skelly raised around $750,000 dollars in the first quarter from individual contributions, if you add his self funding (at least $40,000) that’s at least $790,000 raised. He spent at least $62,000, so his Cash on hand has a ceiling of $728,000. (Assuming he only self-funds $40,000)
Culberson raised $322,000 from Jan 2007 – Feb. 13 2008, and raised another $250,000 from Feb 14 2008 – March 30 2008. He’s spent at least $278,000, so he has a cash on hand ceiling of $294,000.
I can’t wait to see the DCCC and people rally around this one.
Yeah, it's a real race. I don't expect Skelly to win, but that's not what is important.
First, Skelly will give Culberson the tightest race he's ever had. That's good for TX-7 in general.
Two, this district is pretty much lumped in with the Houston portion of TX-10, which is a real target (however, I'd rather have Skelly running against McCaul, which is not a slight against Doehrty, but rather a compliment to Skelly). This is a market where turning out one district will have some effect on the other.
Three, this is from Culberson himself. Culberson says he feels that he is the linchpin of Republicans holding on to Harris County (Houston). Culberson said he felt he needs to be above 60% so as to help all the Republicans win re-election, for if he doesn't that the Demcorats will take over Harris county and a close race in TX-7 would be an asset to Noriega as well against Cornyn.
Check out the video by local ABC Houston: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0rDNoXXyTw
The GOP knew that this district would eventually slip away from their hands, and the Democrats knew that this one would eventually be in reach. But this soon? I’m quite surprised. Coming from someone originally from this place.
This is already a pretty awkward and Gerrymandered district. Upon looking further, It’s actually pretty carefully and skillfully gerrymandered. It contains the Sam Houston Racetrack, but not adjacent Carriage lane (a relatively poor neighborhood)… It doesn’t contain the poor neighborhoods along the inner side of 290 from the beltway, but does contain the more middle-class / affluent parts. It contains the Champions area, and part of the Willowbrook corridor, but not the mall itself nor all of the apartment complexes it contains… brilliantly done if I must say.
Still, the inner Houston parts, despite being very affluent, should be Skelly’s base, including Bellaire, West University, and even River Oaks (one of the richest neighborhoods in the country if not the), but also the Montrose area too (the centre of gay and artistic life in the city). The Katy Freeway corridor, and most extending up to 290, should be Culberson’s most reliable votes. Many of these places are still relatively undeveloped and have quite an exurban feel to it. To win the district, Skelly must carry the “swing” part of the district, the parts northeast of 290 (and perhaps the adjacent parts southwest of it too), the Jersey Village / Cy-Fair area (from which I originate). Here, there’s a lot of middle class places, but also a substantial number of working class homes, and rapidly built appartment complexes. It probably also has most of the districts minorities, with a large amount of hispanics, blacks, and asians (including south asians), and probably increasing in hispanic population. This part, as well as the Katy Freeway corridor, probably accounts for most of the district’s growth, which I’m estimating has grown at least 200,000 since 2000.
I didn’t think this would be a race just yet, but this certainly does excite me.